【AI前沿】Trump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction Market

Kate KnibbsBusinessMay 12, 2026 11:57 AMTrump Media Scales Back Plans for Its Own Prediction MarketTruth Predict was supposed to be the Trump family’s biggest leap yet into prediction markets. Now it’s looking more like a tiptoe.Photograph: Aaron Schwartz/Getty ImagesCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyThe odds thatthe Trump family will launch a full-fledgedprediction marketproduct this year just plummeted.Last year, theTrump Media and Technology GroupannouncedTruth Predict, a partnership with the cryptocurrency company Crypto.com. The initial announcement touted Truth Predict as a “new product” that would allowTruth Socialusers to make trades on sports, inflation, elections, and more through an “embedded” prediction market service. “For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes said in the October 2025press release.At the time, the company detailed how Truth Social users would be able to convert the platform’s existing “Truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens, and then “apply” them to Truth Predict trades. Now, Trump Media is framing the project differently. In its latest public filing, the company indicated that the prediction market “remains in development,” but that its offering would be initially limited to a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the US-based prediction market platform that Crypto.com launched in February 2026.What is a “marketing and promotion collaboration,” exactly? Hard to say, as neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to questions about what the agreement entails. “We’re encouraged by the progress we’ve made developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social’s users,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (“CDNA” refers to Crypto.com’s affiliated US-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, which is called Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. Really rolls off the tongue.)Prediction markets are a quick-growing and hotly contested industry. Donald Trump, Jr. has ties to several leading markets; he is apaid adviserto Kalshi andan investorin Polymarket through his venture capital firm. President Donald Trump has made few public comments about prediction markets, though this April he told reporters that he did not “like it conceptually” and that he was “not happy with any of that stuff.”Still, the Trump administration has largely taken a friendly stance toward the industry through its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Biden-era CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided its CEO Shayne Coplan’s home; the Trump-era CFTC dropped the investigation. The Trump-era CFTC also insists that it has exclusive jurisdiction over the industry, and has opposed state efforts to intervene,filing its own lawsuitsagainst what CFTC chairman Michael Selig describes as “overzealous state regulators.” Selig islocked in a tense battlewith state regulators over how the law should apply to these products; states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts are bringing companies including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to court, arguing that they need to abide by state gambling rules.One of the distinguishing characteristics of OG.com is that it initially planned to allow participants to trade on margin, which means that people would be able to borrow funds to place trades rather than putting up all the financing themselves. Margin trading is an established practice in the financial derivatives world, but relatively new to prediction markets; it inherently involves an added degree of risk because it allows traders to use money they don’t have. (It’s unclear if OG.com will roll this out. When WIRED reached out to the company to ask if margin trading is live, it received an email back from “the OG team” stating “margin trading is not an offered product.”)The upshot is that at some point in the near future, a Truth Social user may be able to toggle between reading Trump’s all-caps posts and borrowing large sums of money to build a World Cup parlay—but depending on how the “marketing and promotion collaboration” is set up, they may not actually be placing trades within the social network.As Trump Media continues to develop whatever its Truth Predict product will eventually be, other right-wing media companies appear to be moving into the space. In March, Newsmaxappliedfor membership at the National Futures Association for something it calls Newsmax Markets.The two leading prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have struck deals with a variety of partners, including news organizations like CNN, CNBC, and Fox. At first glance, Trump Media’s decision to team up with Crypto.com might seem random. But the